An outline, era by era

Australia and New Zealand

Pacific strategy and climate issues

21st Century · 2000 – present

Australia and New Zealand are the two largest and wealthiest countries of the south-west Pacific. Since 2000 both have had to rethink their place in a region where China's influence has grown, where the United States remains the main security partner, and where small island neighbours are asking for more attention. Their Pacific strategy has combined defence agreements, aid, trade and diplomacy, and it has often been tested by disagreements over how to respond to China.

Climate change is the second theme. Australia is one of the world's largest exporters of coal and gas and has argued over emissions policy for decades, while also facing severe droughts, bushfires and coral bleaching. New Zealand has set its own targets, with a large share of its emissions coming from farming. Pacific island governments have pressed both countries to do more, and this has shaped their regional relations.

Things happened, and the rest is history

  1. The Pacific Islands Forum and the Pacific Plan

    Event

    What happened

    Australia and New Zealand are founding members of the South Pacific Forum, created in 1971 and renamed the Pacific Islands Forum in 2000. In 2005 its leaders adopt the Pacific Plan, a framework for closer regional cooperation on trade, security and governance.

    The rest is history

    The Forum became the main place where Australia and New Zealand meet island leaders as members on equal terms. It also became the place where island states press them on climate policy. Fiji was suspended from the Forum in 2009 after its 2006 coup, and both Australia and New Zealand had imposed their own sanctions on Fiji. The Forum's membership and its relations with the two larger members have been debated ever since.

    Sources

    1. BookFry, Greg, and Sandra Tarte, eds. The New Pacific Diplomacy. Canberra: ANU Press, 2016.

  2. The Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands

    Event

    What happened

    In July 2003, after years of ethnic violence and state weakness in Solomon Islands, a regional force arrives at the request of its government. Australia leads it, with New Zealand and other Pacific states contributing police and troops.

    The rest is history

    RAMSI helped end the violence and restore basic policing and public finances, though how lasting its institutional results were is contested. Some observers see it as a turning point in Australia's willingness to intervene in its neighbourhood, while others note that Australia had intervened before and question that view. Critics also questioned its length and its dependence on outside actors. The mission ended in 2017.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryPacific Islands Forum. Pacific Islands Forum Foreign Ministers' statements on the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands, 2003-2017. Suva: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat.

  3. The Kyoto Protocol and Australia's carbon pricing debate

    Event

    What happened

    Australia signs the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 but does not ratify it until December 2007, after a change of government. In 2011 Parliament passes a carbon pricing scheme, which takes effect in 2012 and is repealed in 2014.

    The rest is history

    The reversals showed how divided Australian politics was over climate policy. Emissions policy became a recurring election issue. Australia later adopted a 2030 target under the Paris Agreement and in 2022 legislated a target of a 43 percent cut on 2005 levels by 2030. The Safeguard Mechanism was reformed in 2023 to cover large industrial emitters.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryClimate Change Act 2022 (Cth). Act of the Parliament of Australia, 2022.

  4. The Millennium Drought and the 2019-20 bushfires

    Event

    What happened

    From about 1997 to 2009, with some accounts running to 2010, much of southern Australia suffers a long drought, known as the Millennium Drought. In the summer of 2019-20 huge bushfires burn across the south-east, covering many millions of hectares.

    The rest is history

    Both events brought climate impacts into the centre of Australian public debate. The government set up a Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, which reported in 2020 and recommended better national coordination. The scale of the fires is widely linked by scientists to long-term warming and drying, though the exact role of climate change in any single season is assessed by attribution studies.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryRoyal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements. Report. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2020.

  5. New Zealand's emissions law

    Event

    What happened

    In 2002 New Zealand ratifies the Kyoto Protocol. In 2019 it passes the Zero Carbon Amendment Act, setting a target of net zero for greenhouse gases other than biogenic methane by 2050, with separate reduction targets for biogenic methane. (Its 1987 nuclear-free law is earlier background to its independent policy stance.)

    The rest is history

    Agriculture accounts for about half of New Zealand's emissions, which makes policy there especially contested. The Act set up an independent Climate Change Commission to advise on carbon budgets. Plans to bring farming into the emissions trading scheme changed under later governments.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryClimate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act 2019 (NZ). Act of the New Zealand Parliament, 2019.

  6. AUKUS and the nuclear submarine plan

    Event

    What happened

    In September 2021 Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announce AUKUS, a security partnership. Under it Australia is to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and cancel an earlier contract with France for conventional ones. In March 2023 the three leaders set out a multi-decade plan.

    The rest is history

    The deal marked a major shift in Australian defence policy and drew sharp protest from France. China criticised it, and some Pacific leaders raised concerns about nuclear issues. New Zealand, whose law bans nuclear-powered ships from its waters and whose governments have kept that exclusion in practice, said it would not join the submarine part of the agreement. Its government said it might consider cooperation in other areas.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryJoint Leaders Statement on AUKUS. Statement by the leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, 15 September 2021.

  7. The China-Solomon Islands security agreement

    Event

    What happened

    In April 2022 Solomon Islands and China sign a security agreement, after Solomon Islands had switched its recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019. The text was not made public at first, though a draft leaked online.

    The rest is history

    Australia and New Zealand reacted with alarm, and the United States sent senior officials to Honiara. Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare said the pact would not allow a Chinese military base. Both Canberra and Wellington then increased diplomatic and aid efforts in the islands. Australia also concluded its own security treaties, with Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea in later years.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryFramework Agreement between the Government of the Solomon Islands and the Government of the People's Republic of China on Security Cooperation. Signed April 2022; draft text leaked March 2022.

  8. The Pacific Step-up and Pacific Reset

    Event

    What happened

    In 2018 Australia announces its Pacific Step-up, with more aid, a new infrastructure financing facility and closer defence ties. New Zealand announces a similar Pacific Reset in the same year. At the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum in Tuvalu, island leaders push Australia to take stronger climate action.

    The rest is history

    Pacific leaders adopted the Boe Declaration on regional security in 2018, which names climate change as the main threat to their region. The Forum's 2022 declaration set out a long-term Blue Pacific strategy to 2050. Climate and security have become closely linked in the region's diplomacy.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryPacific Islands Forum. Boe Declaration on Regional Security. Suva: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, 2018.
    2. PrimaryPacific Islands Forum. Kainaki II Declaration for Urgent Climate Action Now. Tuvalu, August 2019.

  9. "Australia and New Zealand are the same country"

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Many people abroad treat Australia and New Zealand as one place, or as near-identical neighbours that share a government, a flag and a foreign policy.

    The rest is history

    They are separate sovereign states with different histories and political systems. New Zealand was proclaimed a British colony in 1840 and chose not to join the Australian federation formed in 1901. The two work closely under the 1983 Closer Economic Relations agreement and a travel arrangement that gives each other's citizens broad, though not unlimited, rights to live and work. They differ on matters such as nuclear policy, since New Zealand's 1987 law bars nuclear-armed ships and bans nuclear-powered ones.

    Sources

    1. BookBelich, James. Paradise Reforged: A History of the New Zealanders. Auckland: Allen Lane, 2001.

  10. "The Pacific is America's lake"

    Popular belief

    The legend

    It is often said that the Pacific is a region where the great powers have no rivals, and that Australia and New Zealand simply follow the United States.

    The rest is history

    Australia and the United States have been allies under the ANZUS treaty since 1951. The United States suspended its obligations to New Zealand in 1986 after its nuclear-free policy took effect. Both countries have since made independent choices, such as trade with China, which is Australia's largest trading partner. Island states also set their own course, as the Boe Declaration and the Solomon Islands agreement show.

    Sources

    1. PrimarySecurity Treaty between Australia, New Zealand and the United States of America (ANZUS). Treaty signed at San Francisco, 1 September 1951.

  11. "Australia did not sign the Kyoto Protocol"

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Australia is often said to have refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol altogether, standing alone with the United States.

    The rest is history

    Australia signed the protocol in April 1998 but, under Prime Minister John Howard, did not ratify it. The Rudd government ratified it in December 2007, and it took effect for Australia in March 2008. Australia's target was an 8 percent rise over 1990 levels, which it argued was fair given its economy, and it met that target.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryKyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Treaty adopted at Kyoto, 11 December 1997.

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