An outline, era by era

Pacific Islands threatened by sea-level rise

21st Century · 2000 – present

Many Pacific Island nations and territories, among them Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Tokelau and parts of Fiji, Samoa and the Federated States of Micronesia, sit on low coral atolls or narrow coastal plains. Since about 2000, rising seas, storm surges that reach further inland as sea level rises, salt-water intrusion into drinking water and farmland, and coastal erosion have made the effects of climate change a daily concern for the people who live there.

Satellite and tide-gauge records show that sea level in parts of the western tropical Pacific has risen faster than the global average in recent decades. Island governments have pushed climate change onto the world's agenda, planned relocation and sea walls, and asked what happens to a country's borders, rights and identity if its land is lost. The topic matters because it combines science, law, migration and culture, and because the countries involved have contributed very little to global emissions.

Things happened, and the rest is history

  1. Island states join together as AOSIS

    Event

    What happened

    In 1990, small island and low-lying coastal states form the Alliance of Small Island States, AOSIS, ahead of the Second World Climate Conference and the negotiations that produce the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992. Pacific states such as Fiji, Samoa, Tuvalu and Kiribati are among its members. In 1994 the Barbados Programme of Action sets out how small island developing states should respond to vulnerability.

    The rest is history

    AOSIS gave small states a joint voice in climate talks, where individually they had little weight. It pressed for strong emission cuts and, in the Paris negotiations of 2015, for the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to be written into the agreement. That aim appears in the Paris Agreement's text, which was adopted in December 2015.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Treaty text adopted at New York, 9 May 1992.The treaty that AOSIS helped shape.
    2. PrimaryParis Agreement. Treaty adopted under the UNFCCC, 12 December 2015.Article 2 refers to pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

  2. The Pacific tide gauge record and the IPCC

    Event

    What happened

    From 1992 the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project installs tide gauges in island states to measure sea level. Satellite altimetry begins in the same year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports in 2001, 2007, 2013, 2019 and 2021 that global sea level is rising and the rate is increasing.

    The rest is history

    These records showed that sea-level rise is not uniform. Rates in the western tropical Pacific have been well above the global mean since the early 1990s, partly because of natural variation linked to winds and ocean cycles on top of the long-term trend. The IPCC's reports became the scientific base for island governments' appeals. The 2019 special report on the ocean and cryosphere projected continued rise through this century and beyond.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryIPCC. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019.Includes regional sea-level findings for small islands.
    2. PrimaryIPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021.

  3. Tuvalu's appeal at the United Nations

    Event

    What happened

    In 2001 Tuvalu's government tells the United Nations that rising seas threaten its existence, and in the following years its leaders speak repeatedly at climate negotiations. Tuvalu is a nation of nine small islands whose highest point is only a few metres above sea level. In 2009 at Copenhagen its delegation presses for a legally binding agreement.

    The rest is history

    Tuvalu's plea made it a symbol of climate vulnerability worldwide. Although its early claim that a flooded nation could seek help from larger states did not produce a binding scheme, it opened a public debate. In 2023 Tuvalu and Australia signed the Falepili Union treaty, which includes a special mobility pathway for Tuvaluans and recognition of Tuvalu's statehood despite sea-level rise. The treaty was signed in November 2023.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryFalepili Union Treaty between Australia and Tuvalu. Signed 9 November 2023.Includes provisions on mobility and on recognising Tuvalu's statehood.
    2. ArticleConnell, John. "Losing Ground? Tuvalu, the Greenhouse Effect and the Garbage Can." Asia Pacific Viewpoint 44, no. 1 (2003): 89-107.

  4. Carteret Islands and planned relocation

    Event

    What happened

    The Carteret Islands, a small atoll group off Bougainville in Papua New Guinea, suffer worsening flooding, damaged gardens and salted wells in the 2000s. In 2007 a local organisation, Tulele Peisa, is established to organise the resettlement of residents on Bougainville's main island. A small number of families move from 2009.

    The rest is history

    The Carterets became one of the first well-known cases of planned climate-related relocation. Progress was slow because of limited land, funding and local disputes, and many residents wished to stay. Researchers note that erosion and storm damage have several causes, so sea-level rise is one factor among others. The case shows how difficult resettlement is in practice.

    Sources

    1. ArticleFarbotko, Carol, and Heather Lazrus. "The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu." Global Environmental Change 22, no. 2 (2012): 382-390.Discusses island narratives and displacement.

  5. Kiribati buys land in Fiji

    Event

    What happened

    In 2014 the government of Kiribati, led by President Anote Tong, buys about 20 square kilometres of land on Vanua Levu in Fiji. It says the land may be used for food production and, if needed, as a place to resettle people. Tong promotes a policy of migration with dignity, training I-Kiribati workers for jobs overseas.

    The rest is history

    The purchase was a practical hedge against the worst outcomes, and it drew wide attention. In later years the land was used mainly for farming projects, and the government under later presidents shifted emphasis toward staying on the islands and raising them or protecting them. The case shows governments weighing adaptation at home against relocation.

    Sources

    1. ArticleMcNamara, Karen E. "Cross-border migration with dignity in Kiribati." Forced Migration Review 49 (2015): 62.
    2. PrimaryGovernment of Kiribati. Kiribati 20-Year Vision 2016-2036. Tarawa: Government of Kiribati, 2016.

  6. The Teitiota case and climate migration law

    Event

    What happened

    Ioane Teitiota, a man from Kiribati, applies for refugee status in New Zealand, arguing that sea-level rise and land loss make return unsafe. New Zealand's tribunals and courts reject his claim by 2015, and he is returned. In 2020 the UN Human Rights Committee decides that he was not unlawfully deported, but says that climate change could in future make return a violation of the right to life.

    The rest is history

    The 2020 decision did not grant Teitiota protection, yet it was the first time a UN human rights body stated that states may not send people back where climate change creates a real risk to life. Lawyers see it as an opening for later claims. The Refugee Convention itself still does not cover people displaced only by environmental change.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryIoane Teitiota v. New Zealand. Views of the UN Human Rights Committee, Communication No. 2728/2016, adopted 24 October 2019, published January 2020.
    2. BookMcAdam, Jane. Climate Change, Forced Migration, and International Law. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.

  7. The Pacific Islands Forum and the Boe Declaration

    Event

    What happened

    At the Pacific Islands Forum in 2018 leaders adopt the Boe Declaration on Regional Security, which names climate change as the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of Pacific peoples. In 2019 Pacific leaders press Australia over coal policy at the Tuvalu forum meeting. In 2021 the Forum leaders issue a declaration on preserving maritime zones in the face of sea-level rise.

    The rest is history

    The 2021 declaration states that maritime zones, once established under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, should not be reduced because of sea-level rise. Many other states have since voiced support for the principle. It matters because ocean resources such as fisheries are a major source of income for island states. The declaration was issued in August 2021.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryBoe Declaration on Regional Security. Pacific Islands Forum, Nauru, September 2018.
    2. PrimaryDeclaration on Preserving Maritime Zones in the Face of Climate Change-related Sea-Level Rise. Pacific Islands Forum, August 2021.

  8. Advisory opinion requests on climate change

    Event

    What happened

    Around 2019 students from the Pacific Island Students Fighting Climate Change begin a campaign for an opinion from the International Court of Justice on states' climate obligations. Vanuatu's government later takes up the idea and leads a diplomatic initiative. In March 2023 the UN General Assembly adopts by consensus a resolution asking the court to advise. Hearings take place in December 2024.

    The rest is history

    The case grew from Pacific youth activism and government diplomacy, which began separately and were joined when Vanuatu adopted the proposal. The court's opinion, which is advisory and not binding, was expected to clarify what duties states have to protect the climate system and what follows when they fail. It is an example of small states using international law to gain influence.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryUN General Assembly Resolution 77/276. Request for an advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on the obligations of States in respect of climate change. Adopted 29 March 2023.

  9. The islands will sink and vanish by 2050

    Popular belief

    The legend

    News reports often say that low-lying Pacific nations such as Tuvalu and Kiribati will vanish beneath the waves within a few decades, and that their people will all become climate refugees.

    The rest is history

    The risk is real, but the picture is more complicated. A 2018 study of satellite images of Tuvalu's atolls found that most islands had grown in area between 1971 and 2014, because sediment and storm deposits add land even as seas rise. That does not make the islands safe, as flooding, salt water in the groundwater and storm damage can make them hard to live on well before they are submerged. Many islanders also reject the label of refugee and want to remain on their lands.

    Sources

    1. ArticleKench, Paul S., Murray R. Ford, and Susan D. Owen. "Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations." Nature Communications 9 (2018): 605.
    2. ArticleFarbotko, Carol, and Heather Lazrus. "The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu." Global Environmental Change 22, no. 2 (2012): 382-390.

  10. The canary of the climate crisis

    Popular belief

    The legend

    It is commonly said that Pacific islanders are the first and only people to suffer from climate change, a warning canary for the rest of the world, and that their own lifestyles are to blame for the problem.

    The rest is history

    Pacific nations emit a tiny share of global greenhouse gases. Tuvalu, Kiribati and others account for far less than one tenth of one per cent of the world total. Climate impacts are also felt in many other regions, including the Arctic, deltas in South Asia and the Caribbean. The canary image has been criticised by some Pacific scholars and islanders for casting them as passive victims. Many point to their long history of voyaging, adaptation and leadership in climate diplomacy.

    Sources

    1. ArticleFarbotko, Carol. "Wishful sinking: Disappearing islands, climate refugees and cosmopolitan experimentation." Asia Pacific Viewpoint 51, no. 1 (2010): 47-60.
    2. PrimaryIPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 15, Small Islands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022.

  11. Islands can simply be raised or walled

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Some people believe that sea walls, or building up the islands, can solve the problem for atoll nations in a straightforward way.

    The rest is history

    Protection works have been built in many places, and some governments, including Kiribati and the Maldives, have explored raising land or reclaiming it. But sea walls are costly, can erode neighbouring shores, and cannot stop salt water rising through porous coral rock into the freshwater lens that islanders drink. Studies of adaptation in atoll nations stress combining measures such as protecting freshwater, raising buildings and moving homes. Costs are large compared to small national budgets, which is why island states call for international climate finance.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryIPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 15, Small Islands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022.
    2. ArticleDuvat, Virginie K. E. "Human-driven atoll island expansion in the Maldives." Anthropocene 32 (2020): 100265.

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