Latin America
political swings; Venezuela crisis
21st Century · 2000 – present
Latin America is the region of the Americas where Spanish, Portuguese and French are the main languages, from Mexico through Central and South America and the Caribbean. Since 2000 its politics have swung repeatedly between left and right. A "pink tide" of left-leaning governments came to power from about 1998, a conservative turn followed in the 2010s, and a new wave of left-wing victories came after 2018. Voters have often punished whoever was in office, and the commodity cycle, inequality, crime and corruption scandals have shaped many of these shifts.
The most severe single crisis has been in Venezuela. Under Hugo Chávez and then Nicolás Maduro, the country went from an oil-funded boom to economic collapse, political confrontation and one of the largest displacements in the region's history. Millions of Venezuelans left, mostly for neighbouring countries. Both the causes of the collapse and the legitimacy of its governments remain disputed, inside the country and abroad.
Things happened, and the rest is history
Chávez wins power in Venezuela
EventWhat happened
In December 1998 Hugo Chávez, a former army officer who led a failed coup attempt in 1992, wins Venezuela's presidential election after the collapse of the old two-party system. A new constitution is approved by referendum in 1999, and he is re-elected under it in 2000. His government uses oil revenue for social programmes in health, food and education.
The rest is history
Chávez's election was the opening of the so-called pink tide, in which left-leaning leaders won office across South America. In Venezuela it led to sharp polarization. A short coup removed him in April 2002 and he returned to office within days. A national oil strike followed in 2002 and 2003, and he won a recall referendum in 2004. Critics say power became increasingly concentrated in the presidency, while supporters point to falling poverty during the high oil prices of the 2000s.
Sources
- BookEllner, Steve. Rethinking Venezuelan Politics: Class, Conflict, and the Chávez Phenomenon. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2008.
- BookCorrales, Javier, and Michael Penfold. Dragon in the Tropics: Hugo Chávez and the Political Economy of Revolution in Venezuela. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
The pink tide across South America
EventWhat happened
After Chávez, left-of-centre candidates win elections in Brazil (Lula, 2002), Argentina (Néstor Kirchner, 2003), Uruguay (Tabaré Vázquez, 2004), Bolivia (Evo Morales, 2005), Ecuador (Rafael Correa, 2006) and elsewhere. Many governments benefit from high prices for oil, soy, copper and other exports in the 2000s. They expand cash-transfer and social programmes.
The rest is history
Poverty and inequality fell in much of the region in these years. The governments differed widely, from the moderate course of Brazil and Uruguay to the more confrontational approach of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. The commodity boom faded after about 2013, which exposed the limits of the model and weakened many of these governments. Scholars debate how far the shift was caused by the boom, by voter anger at 1990s market reforms, or by both.
Sources
- BookLevitsky, Steven, and Kenneth M. Roberts, eds. The Resurgence of the Latin American Left. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2011.
- BookWeyland, Kurt, Raúl L. Madrid, and Wendy Hunter, eds. Leftist Governments in Latin America: Successes and Shortcomings. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
Operation Car Wash and Brazil's political upheaval
EventWhat happened
In 2014 Brazilian federal prosecutors begin Operation Car Wash, an investigation into bribery involving the state oil company Petrobras, major construction firms and politicians. It leads to the jailing of executives and politicians. In 2016 the Senate removes President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party after an impeachment process over budget accounting, and her vice president Michel Temer takes over.
The rest is history
Lula was convicted in 2017 and imprisoned in 2018, which kept him out of that year's election, won by the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro. In 2019 Brazil's Supreme Court's later rulings overturned Lula's convictions on procedural grounds, in 2021, and he won the presidency again in October 2022. The investigation spread to other countries, as the firm Odebrecht admitted paying bribes across Latin America. Its legacy remains contested, with debate over both the corruption it exposed and the legal methods used.
Sources
- BookPereira, Anthony W. Brazil's Political Turmoil. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020.Check edition details before relying on this entry.
Venezuela's economic collapse under Maduro
EventWhat happened
Chávez dies in March 2013 and Nicolás Maduro narrowly wins the election the following month. Oil prices fall from 2014, and Venezuela, which relies on oil for nearly all its export income, faces shortages, price controls and soaring inflation. The economy shrinks sharply over the following years, and inflation reaches hyperinflation levels from 2017.
The rest is history
Economists blame a mix of falling oil prices, mismanagement, price and currency controls, falling oil output and, according to the government, sanctions and an economic war. United States sanctions on the government and the oil sector grew from 2017 and 2019, and critics argue they deepened the crisis. The government rejects the charge of mismanagement. By the early 2020s the economy had shrunk by a large share of its 2013 size, by most estimates, and later official and private figures showed a partial recovery from very low levels.
Sources
- BookCorrales, Javier, and Michael Penfold. Dragon in the Tropics: Hugo Chávez and the Political Economy of Revolution in Venezuela. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
Protests, the 2018 election and two presidents
EventWhat happened
In 2014 and 2017 mass protests against the Maduro government meet forceful repression. In 2017 a new Constituent Assembly is created, bypassing the opposition-held National Assembly. In May 2018 Maduro is re-elected in a vote that many governments and the opposition reject. In January 2019 the National Assembly head Juan Guaidó declares himself interim president, and dozens of countries recognise him.
The rest is history
Maduro kept control of the army and the state, and the Guaidó effort faded without removing him. Many states withdrew recognition of Guaidó by 2023, and the National Assembly ended the interim government in late 2022 at the end of its mandate. Negotiations mediated by Norway and others have produced partial agreements. The July 2024 presidential election was disputed, and Maduro's declared win was contested by the opposition and many governments. The United Nations has reported serious rights violations.
Sources
- PrimaryReport of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. United Nations Human Rights Council, 2020.Documents abuses under the Maduro government.
The Venezuelan exodus
EventWhat happened
From about 2015, as shortages and inflation worsen, Venezuelans leave in growing numbers. By the early 2020s the United Nations estimated more than seven million had left, mostly for Colombia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Brazil. Many cross on foot, and countries introduce special visas and regularisation schemes.
The rest is history
It became one of the largest displacement crises in the world, and in the Americas on a scale not seen before. Colombia granted temporary protection status to around two million Venezuelans in 2021. Some host countries later tightened their entry rules as strains on services and local resentment grew. Remittances became important for many families left in Venezuela.
Sources
- PrimaryRegional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela. UNHCR and IOM, annual reports, 2019 onwards.
The conservative turn and the new left wave
EventWhat happened
After the commodity boom ends, voters in several countries turn right: Mauricio Macri wins in Argentina in 2015, Sebastián Piñera in Chile in 2017, Iván Duque in Colombia in 2018 and Bolsonaro in Brazil in 2018. Then the pendulum swings again. Andrés Manuel López Obrador wins in Mexico in 2018, and left-leaning leaders follow in Argentina (2019), Bolivia (2020), Peru (2021), Chile (2021), Honduras (2021), Colombia (2022) and Brazil (2022).
The rest is history
The pattern was not a simple left or right wave. Most incumbents lost during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the region hard. Many of the new governments faced divided legislatures and narrow margins. In Argentina Javier Milei, a self-described libertarian, won in 2023, and in Chile a conservative government won in 2025, so the swing continues to move in both directions.
Sources
- BookLupu, Noam, Virginia Oliveros, and Luis Schiumerini, eds. Campaigns and Voters in Developing Democracies: Argentina in Comparative Perspective. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2019.
Bolivia's 2019 election crisis
EventWhat happened
In October 2019 Bolivia holds an election in which President Evo Morales seeks a fourth term, after a 2016 referendum had rejected removing term limits and a court later allowed his run. An Organization of American States audit alleges irregularities. After protests and with the military and police urging him to go, Morales resigns in November and leaves for Mexico. Jeanine Áñez takes over as interim president.
The rest is history
Morales's supporters called it a coup, while opponents called it a response to electoral fraud. Later academic studies challenged the OAS's statistical claims, and the matter remains disputed. New elections in October 2020 were won by Luis Arce of Morales's party, and Áñez was later jailed. The events show how divided views of legitimacy can become in the region's politics.
Sources
- PrimaryReport on the Electoral Integrity Analysis, General Elections in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, October 20, 2019. Organization of American States, 2019.
The "Washington Consensus" and the backlash
Popular beliefThe legend
It is often said that the left turn of the 2000s was simply a revolt against "neoliberal" policies imposed by Washington, and that every pink tide government rejected markets. In this story the region's voters chose one clear direction and the right's later wins were a betrayal of it.
The rest is history
The term "Washington Consensus" was coined by the economist John Williamson in 1989 for a list of reforms, and he later said it was not an ideology of extreme free markets. Many left governments kept central banks, trade openness and balanced budgets, as in Brazil under Lula and Uruguay. Voters were reacting to slow growth, inequality and crises such as Argentina's collapse in 2001 and 2002. The region's politics were more varied and pragmatic than the single story suggests.
Sources
- ArticleWilliamson, John. "A Short History of the Washington Consensus." Law and Business Review of the Americas 15, no. 1 (2009): 7-23.
"Venezuela's collapse is only due to socialism" or "only due to sanctions"
Popular beliefThe legend
Public debate often offers one cause for Venezuela's crisis. One version holds that socialism alone destroyed a rich country. The opposite version holds that outside sanctions and hostility alone did it.
The rest is history
Most economists see several causes combined. The economy depended heavily on oil, and output was already falling and shortages already severe before the sharpest sanctions in 2017 and 2019. Sanctions then reduced oil revenue and financing further. Currency controls, expropriations, deficit financing and the fall in oil prices after 2014 also played large roles. Scholars still disagree about how to weigh them.
Sources
- BookCorrales, Javier, and Michael Penfold. Dragon in the Tropics: Hugo Chávez and the Political Economy of Revolution in Venezuela. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011.