An outline, era by era

Iraq War (2003); Arab Spring (2011)

21st Century · 2000 – present

The Iraq War began in March 2003, when a United States-led coalition invaded Iraq and quickly overthrew the government of Saddam Hussein. The stated main reason was the claim that Iraq held weapons of mass destruction, which later inspections found to be untrue. The invasion was followed by a formal occupation that ended with the transfer of sovereignty in June 2004, then by an insurgency, sectarian violence and a lasting argument over whether the war was justified. US combat forces formally left in December 2011.

The Arab Spring began in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread across the Arab world in 2011. Mass protests against authoritarian rule, corruption and unemployment toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and set off uprisings and wars elsewhere. The outcomes differed widely, from fragile reform in Tunisia to renewed authoritarian rule in Egypt and long conflicts in Libya, Yemen and Syria. Together, the two topics reshaped the politics of the Middle East.

Things happened, and the rest is history

  1. The Gulf War and sanctions on Iraq

    Event

    What happened

    In August 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait. In January and February 1991 a UN-authorised coalition led by the United States drives Iraqi forces out. The UN Security Council keeps comprehensive sanctions on Iraq and requires it to give up its weapons programmes under inspection.

    The rest is history

    Sanctions stayed in place through the 1990s and badly harmed Iraq's economy and living standards, though the scale of the human cost is debated. In December 1998 the UN weapons inspectorate, UNSCOM, was withdrawn after disputes in which Iraq obstructed its work, and the US and Britain bombed Iraq in Operation Desert Fox. These years set the background to the argument over Iraq's weapons in 2002 and 2003.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryUnited Nations Security Council Resolution 687. Resolution setting the ceasefire terms and weapons inspections for Iraq, 3 April 1991.
    2. BookFreedman, Lawrence, and Efraim Karsh. The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993.

  2. The attacks of 11 September 2001 and the Iraq Liberation Act

    Event

    What happened

    In 1998 the US Congress passes the Iraq Liberation Act, making regime change in Iraq official US policy, though without military action. On 11 September 2001 al-Qaeda attacks New York and Washington. The US government then launches a wider campaign against terrorism, beginning with the invasion of Afghanistan.

    The rest is history

    After the attacks, officials in the administration of George W. Bush argued that Iraq, with its past weapons programmes, posed a danger that could not be left alone. Investigations, including the 9/11 Commission, found no operational link between Saddam Hussein and the attacks. The change in US security thinking is widely seen as an important part of the road to the 2003 invasion.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryIraq Liberation Act of 1998. Public Law 105-338, United States Congress, 31 October 1998.
    2. PrimaryThe 9/11 Commission Report. Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Washington, DC, 2004.

  3. The weapons argument and the UN debate, 2002-2003

    Event

    What happened

    In November 2002 the UN Security Council passes Resolution 1441, giving Iraq a final chance to disarm, and inspectors return. In February 2003 US Secretary of State Colin Powell presents evidence of Iraqi weapons to the Council. France, Germany and Russia argue for more time for inspections, and no second resolution authorising force is passed.

    The rest is history

    The US, Britain and other allies invaded in March 2003 without a new resolution, and governments disagreed about whether earlier resolutions gave enough authority. After the invasion, the Iraq Survey Group reported in 2004 that Iraq had no stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. In Britain, the Chilcot Inquiry, published in 2016, found that the case for war was presented with more certainty than the intelligence justified.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryUnited Nations Security Council Resolution 1441. Resolution on Iraq's disarmament obligations, 8 November 2002.
    2. PrimaryThe Report of the Iraq Inquiry (Chilcot Report). London: House of Commons, 6 July 2016.

  4. The invasion and the fall of Baghdad

    Event

    What happened

    On 20 March 2003 US, British and allied forces invade Iraq from Kuwait. Baghdad falls in early April, and on 1 May President Bush declares the end of major combat operations. Saddam Hussein goes into hiding and is captured in December 2003.

    The rest is history

    The Iraqi army collapsed quickly, but widespread looting followed and security broke down. The Coalition Provisional Authority, led by Paul Bremer, disbanded the Iraqi army and removed senior Baath Party members from public life in May 2003. Many historians see these decisions as helping to fuel the insurgency that followed. Saddam Hussein was tried by an Iraqi court and executed in December 2006.

    Sources

    1. BookGordon, Michael R., and Bernard E. Trainor. Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq. New York: Pantheon, 2006.
    2. BookAllawi, Ali A. The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2007.

  5. Insurgency, civil war and the surge

    Event

    What happened

    From 2003 an insurgency grows against the occupation, and in February 2006 the bombing of the al-Askari shrine in Samarra sets off severe sectarian fighting between Sunni and Shia groups. In 2007 the US raises its troop numbers in Iraq, called the surge, and works with Sunni tribal fighters in Anbar province. Violence falls sharply from 2007 into 2008.

    The rest is history

    Historians debate how much the surge, the tribal turn against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the earlier ethnic separation of neighbourhoods each contributed to the fall in violence. Estimates of Iraqi deaths from the war and its aftermath vary widely, from the low hundreds of thousands upward. A security agreement in 2008 set the timetable for withdrawal, and the last US combat troops left in December 2011.

    Sources

    1. BookRicks, Thomas E. Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. New York: Penguin Press, 2006.

  6. Mohamed Bouazizi and the Tunisian revolution

    Event

    What happened

    On 17 December 2010 Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor in Sidi Bouzid, sets himself on fire after officials confiscate his goods. He dies on 4 January 2011. Protests spread across Tunisia, and on 14 January President Ben Ali flees the country.

    The rest is history

    This was the first fall of a leader in the Arab Spring, and it inspired protesters in other countries. The protests drew on long-standing grievances: leaders such as Ben Ali, in power since 1987, and Mubarak in Egypt, since 1981, ruled young populations facing graduate unemployment, corruption and police abuse. Tunisia held elections in October 2011 and adopted a new constitution in 2014, and is often seen as the most successful case. In 2021 President Kais Saied suspended parliament, and many observers regard this as a setback for the democratic gains.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryArab Human Development Report 2002: Creating Opportunities for Future Generations. New York: United Nations Development Programme, 2002.Early warning of gaps in freedom, knowledge and opportunity in the region.
    2. BookGelvin, James L. The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.
    3. BookLynch, Marc. The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East. New York: PublicAffairs, 2012.

  7. Tahrir Square and the fall of Mubarak

    Event

    What happened

    On 25 January 2011 large protests begin in Cairo and other Egyptian cities, with Tahrir Square at their centre. After about eighteen days of demonstrations and clashes, Hosni Mubarak resigns on 11 February 2011 and the army takes over. Elections in 2012 bring Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood to the presidency.

    The rest is history

    In July 2013 the army under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi removed Morsi after large protests against his rule. Security forces killed many supporters of Morsi in the Rabaa square dispersal in August 2013. Sisi was elected president in 2014. In Libya, Yemen and Bahrain the protests led to foreign involvement, civil war or repression, and the uprising in Syria turned into the war covered in a separate entry.

    Sources

    1. BookGelvin, James L. The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.
    2. BookLynch, Marc. The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East. New York: PublicAffairs, 2012.

  8. Iraq was invaded for oil

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Many people say the real reason for the 2003 invasion was to seize Iraq's oil. The slogan 'No blood for oil' was common at the protests before the war. In this telling, weapons of mass destruction were only a pretext.

    The rest is history

    Oil is often named as one factor among others, and Iraq holds some of the world's largest reserves. But the US government's stated reasons were weapons, terrorism and regime change, and historians give them different weights. After the war, Iraq's oil contracts mostly went to a mix of Chinese, European and other companies under auctions held by the Iraqi government from 2009. Scholars still debate the part that oil played in the decision.

    Sources

    1. BookGordon, Michael R., and Bernard E. Trainor. Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq. New York: Pantheon, 2006.
    2. PrimaryThe Report of the Iraq Inquiry (Chilcot Report). London: House of Commons, 6 July 2016.

  9. Saddam's statue and 'Mission Accomplished'

    Popular belief

    The legend

    On 9 April 2003 a crowd in Baghdad's Firdos Square pulls down a large statue of Saddam Hussein, and the image is shown around the world as a spontaneous victory. On 1 May President Bush stands on an aircraft carrier beneath a banner reading 'Mission Accomplished'. Together the two scenes are told as proof the war was won.

    The rest is history

    The Firdos Square crowd was fairly small, and US Marines helped bring the statue down with a recovery vehicle, though many Iraqis were glad to see Saddam's rule end. The banner was meant to honour the carrier's crew returning from a long deployment, and Bush's speech said major combat was over but that work remained. The White House later admitted the banner had been a mistake. The formal occupation ended in June 2004, but the war went on, and US forces stayed in Iraq until December 2011.

    Sources

    1. BookGordon, Michael R., and Bernard E. Trainor. Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq. New York: Pantheon, 2006.
    2. BookRicks, Thomas E. Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. New York: Penguin Press, 2006.

  10. The Arab Spring was a Facebook revolution

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Many accounts say the Arab uprisings were started and organised by young people using Facebook and Twitter. In this telling, social media made the revolutions possible. Some even call them the 'Twitter revolutions'.

    The rest is history

    Social media helped spread news and images, and activists in Egypt did use Facebook pages to call for protests. But scholars note that the movements relied on older networks such as trade unions, football fans, mosques and satellite television, including Al Jazeera. Internet use was still limited in much of the region in 2011. Most researchers see social media as a tool that sped up mobilisation, not as the cause of the uprisings.

    Sources

    1. BookLynch, Marc. The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East. New York: PublicAffairs, 2012.
    2. BookGelvin, James L. The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.

  11. The Arab Spring brought democracy to the Arab world

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Early in 2011 many observers and politicians described the uprisings as a wave of democracy that would transform the region. Leaders fell in a few weeks, and some predicted that others would follow. The name 'Arab Spring' itself suggests a new season of freedom.

    The rest is history

    Only Tunisia built a lasting multiparty system for some years, and even there it came under strain after 2021. Egypt returned to military-backed rule, and Libya, Yemen and Syria slid into prolonged conflict. The term 'Arab Spring' was a Western coinage, and many Arabs prefer words such as uprisings or awakening. Scholars still debate whether the events should be seen as failed revolutions or as the start of a longer process of change.

    Sources

    1. BookLynch, Marc. The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East. New York: PublicAffairs, 2012.
    2. BookGelvin, James L. The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.

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