An outline, era by era

India

growth into the world's most populous country

21st Century · 2000 – present

India is a country of South Asia that, according to United Nations estimates, overtook China in 2023 to become the most populous country in the world, with a population of about 1.4 billion. Its population passed one billion around 2000 and has kept growing, though the rate of growth has slowed as birth rates have fallen across the country. Since the 1990s its economy has also grown quickly, and it is now among the largest in the world.

The path to this point runs through independence in 1947, decades of planned and protected economic policy, the reforms of 1991, the rise of an information technology industry, and a series of large public programmes and elections in the 21st century. Growth has brought great change and also persistent problems of poverty, inequality and regional difference. This entry covers the events that led up to India's rise in population and weight in the world, and some popular beliefs about it.

Things happened, and the rest is history

  1. Independence and Partition, 1947

    Event

    What happened

    On 15 August 1947 British rule in India ends and two new states, India and Pakistan, come into being. The Indian Independence Act 1947 divides British India along religious lines, and the provinces of Punjab and Bengal are split. Jawaharlal Nehru becomes the first prime minister of India.

    The rest is history

    Partition caused one of the largest migrations in history, with millions crossing the new borders, and great violence, with deaths usually estimated in the hundreds of thousands to about a million or more. India adopted its constitution on 26 January 1950 and became a republic with universal adult suffrage, unusual for a poor country at the time. This democratic framework is the setting for all of India's later growth.

    Sources

    1. BookKhan, Yasmin. The Great Partition: The Making of India and Pakistan. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2007.
    2. PrimaryIndian Independence Act 1947. Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, 18 July 1947.

  2. The Constitution and the first elections

    Event

    What happened

    The Constitution of India comes into force on 26 January 1950. The first general election, held from late 1951 to early 1952, gives the vote to some 170 million or more adults, most of whom cannot read. The Congress party under Nehru wins a large majority.

    The rest is history

    India has held regular national elections since, and the system has survived wars, emergencies and many changes of government. The Emergency of 1975 to 1977 was a serious interruption, ended by the 1977 election. Stable elections shaped how later reforms were debated and carried out, though historians note that democracy and growth did not always move together.

    Sources

    1. BookGuha, Ramachandra. India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy. New York: Ecco, 2007.

  3. The Green Revolution

    Event

    What happened

    From the mid-1960s India adopts high-yielding varieties of wheat and later rice, together with more irrigation and fertiliser. Drought and food shortages in 1965 and 1966 had left the country reliant on imported grain. Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh see the largest gains.

    The rest is history

    Wheat output rose sharply in the following years, and by the 1970s India no longer depended on large grain imports. The gains were uneven across regions and crops, and came with costs such as falling groundwater levels. Food security of this kind allowed a much larger population to be fed as numbers rose.

    Sources

    1. BookFrankel, Francine R. India's Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971.

  4. The balance of payments crisis and reforms of 1991

    Event

    What happened

    In 1991 India's foreign exchange reserves fall so low that they cover only a few weeks of imports. The new government of P. V. Narasimha Rao, with finance minister Manmohan Singh, devalues the rupee, ends most industrial licensing and lowers import tariffs. The country also pledges gold to raise emergency funds and turns to the International Monetary Fund.

    The rest is history

    The reforms opened much of the economy to private and foreign firms after decades of state planning. Economists broadly agree that growth accelerated afterwards, though they debate how much was due to 1991 itself, since growth had already risen in the 1980s. Annual growth often ran at 6 to 8 percent in the following decades.

    Sources

    1. BookPanagariya, Arvind. India: The Emerging Giant. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.
    2. BookBhagwati, Jagdish, and Arvind Panagariya. Why Growth Matters. New York: PublicAffairs, 2013.

  5. The rise of the information technology industry

    Event

    What happened

    From the 1980s and 1990s firms such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Wipro build software and services businesses, centred on Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune. Preparation for the Year 2000 computer problem brings large contracts from abroad. Falling telecom costs and a large pool of English-speaking engineers help the sector expand.

    The rest is history

    IT and business services became a leading export, bringing in tens of billions of dollars a year by the 2010s and creating a new urban middle class. The sector employs millions directly, a small share of a very large workforce. It made India widely visible in the global economy in the early 21st century.

    Sources

    1. BookNilekani, Nandan. Imagining India: The Idea of a Renewed Nation. New York: Penguin Press, 2009.

  6. Population growth and falling fertility

    Event

    What happened

    India's population rises from about 360 million in 1951 to about one billion around 2000, as death rates fall faster than birth rates. The census of 2001 counts over 1.02 billion people. Fertility then declines, and by the 2020s the national average is near the replacement level of about two children per woman.

    The rest is history

    The United Nations Population Division estimated in its 2023 report that India passed China in April of that year, though no census confirmed the exact moment. India's last census was in 2011, and the next one, due in 2021, was delayed. Demographers expect India's population to keep growing for some decades before levelling off.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryCensus of India 2011. Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India.
    2. PrimaryWorld Population Prospects 2022. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022.

  7. Aadhaar and digital public infrastructure

    Event

    What happened

    In 2009 India creates the Unique Identification Authority, and from 2010 it issues Aadhaar numbers linked to fingerprint and iris data. By the late 2010s over a billion people are enrolled. The government adds the Unified Payments Interface, launched in 2016, for instant bank transfers.

    The rest is history

    These systems let the state send payments directly to bank accounts and made digital payments common even for small purchases. They have also drawn criticism over privacy and exclusion. In 2018 the Supreme Court of India upheld Aadhaar with limits on its required use and in 2017 had affirmed privacy as a fundamental right.

    Sources

    1. BookNilekani, Nandan, and Viral Shah. Rebooting India: Realizing a Billion Aspirations. New Delhi: Penguin, 2015.

  8. The 2023 Chandrayaan-3 landing

    Event

    What happened

    On 23 August 2023 the Indian Space Research Organisation lands the Chandrayaan-3 probe near the south pole of the Moon. An earlier attempt, Chandrayaan-2, had lost its lander in 2019. India becomes the fourth country to land softly on the Moon.

    The rest is history

    The mission was a sign of India's growing technical standing, achieved at a fairly low cost. ISRO had earlier placed the Mangalyaan probe in orbit around Mars in September 2014 on its first attempt. These missions are often cited as part of India's wider rise.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryChandrayaan-3 mission reports. Indian Space Research Organisation, 2023.

  9. India is poor because of colonial rule alone, or rich because of it

    Popular belief

    The legend

    A common claim holds that India was the richest country in the world before the British arrived and was drained to poverty. A matching claim says British rule gave India its railways, law and unity. Each is repeated in public debate as the whole story.

    The rest is history

    Historians agree that India was a large and important part of the world economy before 1700, with a large share of world output, mostly because of its large population. Economic historians such as Tirthankar Roy argue that the record is mixed, and that the colonial economy was neither a simple drain nor a simple gift. Per-person income in India grew very little between 1757 and 1947. The Mughal state had been in decline well before the British took control.

    Sources

    1. BookRoy, Tirthankar. The Economic History of India, 1857-2010. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2011.
    2. BookMaddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD, 2001.

  10. The Hindu rate of growth

    Popular belief

    The legend

    It is often said that India grew at a fixed, slow 'Hindu rate of growth' of about 3.5 percent because of its culture. The phrase is sometimes used to suggest that Indian society was unfit for economic growth.

    The rest is history

    The economist Raj Krishna coined the phrase in the 1970s to describe slow growth between 1950 and 1980, and it did not refer to religion in any real sense. Growth in that period was closer to 3.5 percent a year overall, but this reflected licensing, trade controls and state planning. Growth rose in the 1980s and again after 1991 under changed policy, which shows that policy rather than culture explains most of the difference.

    Sources

    1. BookBhagwati, Jagdish. India in Transition: Freeing the Economy. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1993.
    2. ArticleRodrik, Dani, and Arvind Subramanian. "From 'Hindu Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition." IMF Staff Papers 52, no. 2 (2005): 193-228.

  11. India is about to overtake everyone as the next superpower

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Since the early 2000s commentators have often claimed that India will soon rival or overtake China and the United States in wealth. The claim is made in headlines whenever India's growth rate tops that of other large economies.

    The rest is history

    India's economy has grown quickly and is now among the five largest by total output. But income per person remains far below China's, and a large share of workers are still in farming or informal work. Forecasts of overtaking depend on assumptions that change from year to year. Most economists describe India as a fast-growing but still lower-middle-income country.

    Sources

    1. BookDrèze, Jean, and Amartya Sen. An Uncertain Glory: India and Its Contradictions. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013.

  12. The Indian rope trick and the land of snake charmers

    Popular belief

    The legend

    In a widely told image, India is a land of snake charmers and mystics, and the old rope trick, in which a boy climbs an unsupported rope and vanishes, is said to be a real feat. The picture of an unchanging, mystical country has long been used by outsiders to explain India.

    The rest is history

    Reports of the rope trick come mainly from European travellers' accounts, and a famous 1890 account in the Chicago Tribune was later admitted to be a hoax. Snake charming was banned under India's Wildlife Protection Act of 1972. The image of timeless India hides a country that is now largely urbanising and digital, with one of the largest populations of young engineers in the world.

    Sources

    1. BookLamont, Peter. The Rise of the Indian Rope Trick. London: Little, Brown, 2004.

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