An outline, era by era

Conflicts in Sudan, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa

21st Century · 2000 – present

This entry covers the wars and insurgencies that have marked a broad belt of northeastern and north-central Africa since 2000. It includes Sudan, where conflict in Darfur began in 2003 and a war between two rival armed forces began in April 2023. It also covers the Sahel, the semi-arid band south of the Sahara, where jihadist and separatist insurgencies have spread since 2012, and the Horn of Africa, where Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea have faced war and instability.

These conflicts have causes that differ from place to place, including disputes over land and water, weak or contested states, ethnic and regional grievances, the spread of armed groups, and outside intervention. They have killed very large numbers of people and displaced millions. They have also reshaped regional politics, with military coups in several Sahel states and the withdrawal of Western forces. This entry gives a sober outline of some key episodes and of common stories about them. Many of these conflicts are ongoing, and some details remain disputed.

Things happened, and the rest is history

  1. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's independence

    Event

    What happened

    In January 2005 the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement sign the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, ending a civil war that had begun in 1983. It promises power and oil-revenue sharing and a referendum on southern self-determination. In January 2011 almost 99 percent of voters in the south choose independence.

    The rest is history

    South Sudan became independent on 9 July 2011. Disputes with Sudan over oil, borders and the region of Abyei were left unresolved, and Sudan lost much of its oil income. South Sudan itself fell into civil war in December 2013. The loss of the south also changed the balance of power inside Sudan.

    Sources

    1. BookJohnson, Douglas H. The Root Causes of Sudan's Civil Wars. Oxford: James Currey, 2003.
    2. PrimaryComprehensive Peace Agreement between the Government of the Republic of the Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. Signed at Naivasha and Nairobi, 9 January 2005.

  2. The Darfur war begins

    Event

    What happened

    In February 2003 rebel groups in Darfur, western Sudan, the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement, attack government targets, complaining of marginalisation. The government responds with air attacks and by arming militias known as the Janjaweed. Villages are destroyed and large numbers of civilians are killed or driven from their homes.

    The rest is history

    Hundreds of thousands of people died, mostly from violence, hunger and disease, and about two million were displaced. In 2005 the UN Security Council referred Darfur to the International Criminal Court, which issued a warrant for President Omar al-Bashir in 2009. The United States called the violence genocide, while a UN commission found crimes against humanity and war crimes but not a government policy of genocide. The Janjaweed later became the basis of the Rapid Support Forces.

    Sources

    1. BookFlint, Julie, and Alex de Waal. Darfur: A New History of a Long War. London: Zed Books, 2008.
    2. PrimaryReport of the International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur to the United Nations Secretary-General. Geneva, 25 January 2005.

  3. Al-Shabaab and the war in Somalia

    Event

    What happened

    Somalia's central government collapsed in 1991, and the transitional and federal governments formed since 2004 have had limited and contested authority. In 2006 the Islamic Courts Union takes Mogadishu, and in December Ethiopian troops invade and drive it out. The militant wing, al-Shabaab, then fights the transitional government and later the African Union mission AMISOM, which deployed in 2007.

    The rest is history

    Al-Shabaab held much of southern Somalia until losing Mogadishu in 2011 and other towns afterwards. It remained able to carry out major attacks, in Somalia and in neighbouring Kenya, and joined al-Qaeda in 2012. The 2011 famine killed a large number of people, with estimates in the hundreds of thousands. AMISOM was replaced by a new African Union mission in 2022.

    Sources

    1. BookHansen, Stig Jarle. Al-Shabaab in Somalia: The History and Ideology of a Militant Islamist Group. London: Hurst, 2013.

  4. The 2012 Tuareg rebellion and the coup in Mali

    Event

    What happened

    In January 2012 Tuareg separatists of the MNLA launch a rebellion in northern Mali, helped by fighters who had returned from Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. In March soldiers overthrow President Amadou Toumani Touré. Islamist groups, including Ansar Dine and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, then take control of the major northern towns.

    The rest is history

    In January 2013 France launched Operation Serval and pushed the Islamists out of the main towns. A UN mission, MINUSMA, deployed in 2013. Violence spread to central Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, with attacks by groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The peace agreement of 2015 with northern groups was never fully carried out.

    Sources

    1. BookLecocq, Baz. Disputed Desert: Decolonisation, Competing Nationalisms and Tuareg Rebellions in Northern Mali. Leiden: Brill, 2010.
    2. BookThurston, Alexander. Jihadists of North Africa and the Sahel: Local Politics and Rebel Groups. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020.

  5. Boko Haram and the Lake Chad conflict

    Event

    What happened

    Boko Haram, a Nigerian Islamist group founded in Maiduguri in the early 2000s, turns to armed revolt in July 2009 after its leader Mohammed Yusuf dies in police custody. Under Abubakar Shekau it attacks towns, schools and markets in northeastern Nigeria. In April 2014 it abducts 276 schoolgirls from Chibok.

    The rest is history

    The group took control of large areas in 2014 and 2015, and in 2015 pledged loyalty to the Islamic State. A regional force from Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon pushed it back. The conflict spread around Lake Chad and displaced millions of people. Splits followed, including the creation of the Islamic State West Africa Province, and Shekau died in 2021.

    Sources

    1. BookWalker, Andrew. Eat the Heart of the Infidel: The Harrowing of Nigeria and the Rise of Boko Haram. London: Hurst, 2016.

  6. The fall of Omar al-Bashir

    Event

    What happened

    In December 2018 protests over the price of bread spread across Sudan and become demands for the end of President Omar al-Bashir's rule. On 11 April 2019 the army removes him after thirty years in power. A civilian-military Sovereign Council is set up in August 2019 under an agreed constitutional declaration.

    The rest is history

    The transition was led jointly by generals and civilian politicians. In October 2021 the army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, supported by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, seized power and removed the civilian side. The two generals later fell out, most visibly over the planned merger of the Rapid Support Forces into the army. That dispute was central to the breakdown that ended in fighting in April 2023, alongside the failed transition, rival power bases and rising political tension.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryConstitutional Declaration for the Transitional Period. Sudan, signed 17 August 2019.

  7. The Tigray War

    Event

    What happened

    On 4 November 2020 forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which governed the Tigray region, attack federal army Northern Command bases in Tigray, according to the Ethiopian government. The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed then launches a military campaign against the TPLF, and Eritrean troops also enter Tigray. Fighting and massacres follow, along with severe restrictions on the region's access and aid, whose scope and responsibility are contested.

    The rest is history

    Estimates of the dead vary widely, and some researchers suggest several hundred thousand deaths from violence and hunger, though figures are disputed. Both sides and Eritrean forces were accused of serious abuses. A cessation of hostilities was signed in Pretoria on 2 November 2022. Tensions in Ethiopia, including conflict in the Amhara and Oromia regions, continued.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryAgreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities between the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Pretoria, 2 November 2022.

  8. War between the army and the RSF in Sudan

    Event

    What happened

    On 15 April 2023 fighting breaks out in Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. It spreads to Darfur and other regions. Millions of people leave their homes and many cross into Chad, Egypt and South Sudan.

    The rest is history

    By 2024 the UN described one of the world's largest displacement and hunger crises, with famine conditions reported in some areas. Ceasefire talks, including those in Jeddah, failed to hold. Reports of ethnic killings in West Darfur drew renewed international concern. The war remains ongoing, and its death toll is not reliably known.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryReport of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan. United Nations Human Rights Council, 2024.

  9. The Janjaweed as devils on horseback

    Popular belief

    The legend

    It is widely said that the Darfur war was simply a clash between Arab herders and African farmers, with the Janjaweed as an ancient, spontaneous Arab militia.

    The rest is history

    The picture is too simple. Darfur's Arab and non-Arab groups have long intermarried and shared Islam, and many Arab groups were also victims. Drought and land disputes from the 1980s pushed herders and farmers into conflict. The Janjaweed in 2003 and 2004 were armed, supplied and coordinated by the state, with air support. Many of these fighters later formed the Rapid Support Forces, officially recognised in 2013.

    Sources

    1. BookFlint, Julie, and Alex de Waal. Darfur: A New History of a Long War. London: Zed Books, 2008.

  10. Climate change as the cause of Darfur

    Popular belief

    The legend

    In 2007 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote that the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising from climate change, and the idea is often repeated as a simple explanation.

    The rest is history

    Drought and desertification did put pressure on land and water in Darfur from the 1970s. Most scholars say they were only one factor. The war also depended on government policy, regional neglect, rebel politics and weapons supplies. The claim is better seen as a stress on already strained politics than as a sole cause.

    Sources

    1. PrimaryBan Ki-moon. "A Climate Culprit in Darfur." Washington Post, 16 June 2007.
    2. BookFlint, Julie, and Alex de Waal. Darfur: A New History of a Long War. London: Zed Books, 2008.

  11. The Sahel as a vast ungoverned space

    Popular belief

    The legend

    Western commentary often describes the Sahel as an empty, ungoverned desert where terrorists can roam freely.

    The rest is history

    The region has long had its own trade routes, chiefdoms and local authorities. Many of its conflicts grew from local disputes over land, herding and policing, as well as from state abuses. Armed groups often gained support by offering security or justice where the state was absent or feared. Researchers argue that the label hides these local politics.

    Sources

    1. BookThurston, Alexander. Jihadists of North Africa and the Sahel: Local Politics and Rebel Groups. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020.

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